Versus – Part 1, Variables for the Property Industry

The first step to transformative scenario planning is to establish the variables that could impact our industry or society over a defined time frame. We do this collectively in our workshops but for the sake of a blog I have taken some of the most common variables from our workshops that affect our industry.

Scenario Variables for Future Property 2030 

  1. Demand for for low carbon strategies
  2. Cost and Scarcity of Oil
  3. Government investment in reducing emissions
  4. Government commitment to emission reduction
  5. Level of disclosure of energy or carbon efficiency
  6. Number of and severity of extreme weather events
  7. Cost of abatement and mitigation
  8. Stability of the economy
  9. Stability of the government
  10. Level of ethical performance required from the market
  11. Percentage of population living in cities
  12. GDP/Person
  13. Level of resilience and adaptation demanded
  14. Percentage of brand value associated with sustainability
  15. Social Activism around climate change
  16. Level of alternative delivery and procurement solutions
  17. Individual accountability for consumption
  18. Control over individual emissions

The next steps will be to establish which of these variables have a high level of uncertainty and a high level of impact. If a variable has a lower level of uncertainty, or a lower impact than the other variable selected then it can be discounted and the other variables prioritised.

Have I missed any obvious variables? Should some be discounted early on?

One Comment on “Versus – Part 1, Variables for the Property Industry

  1. level of ethical performance within the market? is there a sense of determination/interest/will or is the ethical performance imposed. or have i got hold of the wrong end of the stick?

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