Versus – Part 1, Variables for the Property Industry
The first step to transformative scenario planning is to establish the variables that could impact our industry or society over a defined time frame. We do this collectively in our workshops but for the sake of a blog I have taken some of the most common variables from our workshops that affect our industry.
Scenario Variables for Future Property 2030
- Demand for for low carbon strategies
- Cost and Scarcity of Oil
- Government investment in reducing emissions
- Government commitment to emission reduction
- Level of disclosure of energy or carbon efficiency
- Number of and severity of extreme weather events
- Cost of abatement and mitigation
- Stability of the economy
- Stability of the government
- Level of ethical performance required from the market
- Percentage of population living in cities
- Level of resilience and adaptation demanded
- Percentage of brand value associated with sustainability
- Social Activism around climate change
- Level of alternative delivery and procurement solutions
- Individual accountability for consumption
- Control over individual emissions
The next steps will be to establish which of these variables have a high level of uncertainty and a high level of impact. If a variable has a lower level of uncertainty, or a lower impact than the other variable selected then it can be discounted and the other variables prioritised.
Have I missed any obvious variables? Should some be discounted early on?