Versus – Part 2, Prioritising the Variables
In Variables – Part 1, I identified some possible variables that might impact Future Property 2030. In this post I have ranked the variables in terms of Impact and Uncertainty. In scenario planning it is the variables that have a higher impact and a higher uncertainty that we focus on.
The ranking of the variables is typically done as a group with a lot of discussion over a long time, each participant come with their own opinions but also gets their opinions tested against others views and also empirical data. For the sake of getting the the Versus part of scenario planning I have ranked the 18 variables in terms of Impact and Uncertainty from my own experiences and opinions as below.
|
Impact |
Uncertainty |
|
| Demand for for low carbon strategies |
8 |
15 |
| Cost and Scarcity of Oil |
10 |
14 |
| Government investment in reducing emissions |
6 |
7 |
| Government commitment to emission reduction |
5 |
9 |
| Level of disclosure of energy or carbon efficiency |
2 |
1 |
| Number of and severity of extreme weather events |
16 |
18 |
| Cost of abatement and mitigation |
12 |
10 |
| Stability of the economy |
11 |
5 |
| Stability of the government |
9 |
4 |
| Level of ethical performance required from the market |
14 |
11 |
| Percentage of population living in cities |
15 |
12 |
| GDP/Person |
1 |
8 |
| Level of resilience and adaptation demanded |
13 |
13 |
| Percentage of brand value associated with sustainability |
3 |
6 |
| Social Activism around climate change |
7 |
16 |
| Level of alternative delivery and procurement solutions |
4 |
3 |
| Individual accountability for consumption |
17 |
17 |
| Control over individual emissions |
18 |
2 |
In identifying the key variables as being the most uncertain and most impactful I have plotted the top 5 variables on the matrix below.
In Versus Part 3 I will start with the two key variables “Number and Severity of Extreme Weather Events” and “Individual Accountability for Consumption” identify the scenarios to be considered and start with the first scenario.
Prioritising what variables will impact the Property Industry in 2030 is a difficult task, even harder as an individual. The questions that remain are – Have I got the ranking right? Should other variables be prioritised over the ones I have chosen? Have I missed any key variables?
SIMON WILD 