Versus – Part 2, Prioritising the Variables

In Variables – Part 1, I identified some possible variables that might impact Future Property 2030. In this post I have ranked the variables in terms of Impact and Uncertainty. In scenario planning it is the variables that have a higher impact and a higher uncertainty that we focus on.

The ranking of the variables is typically done as a group with a lot of discussion over a long time, each participant come with their own opinions but also gets their opinions tested against others views and also empirical data. For the sake of getting the the Versus part of scenario planning I have ranked the 18 variables in terms of Impact and Uncertainty from my own experiences and opinions as below.

Impact

Uncertainty

Demand for for low carbon strategies

8

15

Cost and Scarcity of Oil

10

14

Government investment in reducing emissions

6

7

Government commitment to emission reduction

5

9

Level of disclosure of energy or carbon efficiency

2

1

Number of and severity of extreme weather events

16

18

Cost of abatement and mitigation

12

10

Stability of the economy

11

5

Stability of the government

9

4

Level of ethical performance required from the market

14

11

Percentage of population living in cities

15

12

GDP/Person

1

8

Level of resilience and adaptation demanded

13

13

Percentage of brand value associated with sustainability

3

6

Social Activism around climate change

7

16

Level of alternative delivery and procurement solutions

4

3

Individual accountability for consumption

17

17

Control over individual emissions

18

2

In identifying the key variables as being the most uncertain and most impactful I have plotted the top 5 variables on the matrix below.

Slide1

In Versus Part 3 I will start with the two key variables “Number and Severity of Extreme Weather Events” and “Individual Accountability for Consumption” identify the scenarios to be considered and start with the first scenario.

Prioritising what variables will impact the Property Industry in 2030 is a difficult task, even harder as an individual. The questions that remain are – Have I got the ranking right? Should other variables be prioritised over the ones I have chosen? Have I missed any key variables?

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